Car Buying Bubble

[Memogiyi]

I have a coworker who needs to buy a car(manufacturers warranty preferred). He’s been looking at Xgens going over $20k for an LX trim, and then mid $25k for any higher trims.

He’s made an appointment to go look at the 11gen to see if he can get it near msrp for the entry level trim.. now my question is anyone have an idea or know when this car buying bubble may pop or level out?

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[Shankmeyster]

2023 maybe. Seriously it will be when supply can meet demand again. I work in the car business and the major problem is that, last year, dealers thought "oh shit, pandemic and massive layoffs/furloughs, nobody is going to be buying vehicles so lets cut our orders massively". Then what happened was the exact opposite and US dealers sold more cars in one year than the history of car sales. Now the parts manufacturers, who were in the same situation because pandemic/loss of vehicle orders, can't get back to pre-pandemic production levels due to labor/materials shortages and Covid still being a thing. And even if they got to pre-pandemic levels it wouldn't keep up with demand because now everyone can get paid more than they did before Covid and can afford to buy more cars thereby creating even higher demand in a vicious never ending cycle.

Currently almost every vehicle any of the dealers get in in the complex I work in, is sold before it even arrives and, if it isn't, it usually sells within a day or 2 of going on the lot. Car lots around here are extremely low on inventory and I'm surprised some sales departments are even still operating. Service departments are booming however and cannot keep up with incoming vehicles, and replacement parts are extremely hard to find as well. So hope to god that that new vehicle your buddy buys doesn't break down or have an issue within the first 6 months.

 

[NukeKS14]

Whenever the substrate shortage ends and auto mfr's can make chips again in mass quantities (and people stop tolerating/paying the asinine premiums.) No clue, honestly it's all going to be speculation. My condolences to your coworker's wallet.


My unsolicited advice; he can bite the bullet now and get what he wants but accept that he's going to most likely pay through the nose, OR buy something reliable but less fashionable\desirable and ride this financial turd-wave out and have a beater car, if he can tolerate that.

Would be cheaper on insurance too in the short term and once the market rights itself the car could be kept or traded in. Most late model cars in that segment have taken their depreciation hit for the most part, are reliable and economic, and have low residual cost of ownership.

Something like a used 06-13' Camry, second gen Mazda3, or 10-11th gen Corolla can be found for well under 10k all day long. I still have my 2010 Corolla, it's dead reliable and I use it when I need to go visit family on dirt roads and/or park somewhere sketchy and not worry about my doors getting dinged in the airport long-term parking. Does double duty hauling my dogs and I can fit a decent amount of lumber in there if I remove the passenger seat and rear seat-backs and tie the trunk down. Ghetto as heck but it serves its purpose. Make sure you staple a red flag on the end of the lumber if you're going to do that so other drivers can see where the lumber extends.

I'm assuming you're talking MIssion Hills Kansas City here and not somewhere else with emissions\inspection complications.

 

[websitesdown]

Whenever the countries supplying electronics and we " USA " catch up with Brazil India and Sweden and other countries who're doing away with the nwo bs so we can go back to normal.

 

[Memogiyi]

2023 maybe. Seriously it will be when supply can meet demand again. I work in the car business and the major problem is that, last year, dealers thought "oh shit, pandemic and massive layoffs/furloughs, nobody is going to be buying vehicles so lets cut our orders massively". Then what happened was the exact opposite and US dealers sold more cars in one year than the history of car sales. Now the parts manufacturers, who were in the same situation because pandemic/loss of vehicle orders, can't get back to pre-pandemic production levels due to labor/materials shortages and Covid still being a thing. And even if they got to pre-pandemic levels it wouldn't keep up with demand because now everyone can get paid more than they did before Covid and can afford to buy more cars thereby creating even higher demand in a vicious never ending cycle.

Currently almost every vehicle any of the dealers get in in the complex I work in, is sold before it even arrives and, if it isn't, it usually sells within a day or 2 of going on the lot. Car lots around here are extremely low on inventory and I'm surprised some sales departments are even still operating. Service departments are booming however and cannot keep up with incoming vehicles, and replacement parts are extremely hard to find as well. So hope to god that that new vehicle your buddy buys doesn't break down or have an issue within the first 6 months.

Thanks for your input. My coworker had previously purchased a used 2014 Nissan Sentra with 80k miles and the tranny went bad on him within the first year (car was bought cash/private party). His mechanic was charging around 4K for cost +labor for a new transmission.. so he got rid of it. He actually got lucky and sold it to Carmax for a good deal.

Now the issue is finding a good used or even new car. But like you said, it may just be better waiting or biting the bullet on something a little older but reliable.

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